Türkiye: Geopolitical Influences and International Relations
Group 2: Arnab Majumdar, Brandon Sanker, Julian Cardinale, Kenneth Ocasio & Olga Doroshenko
Internal Politics
Regional Dynamics
Global Alliances
Internal Politics & Regional Landscape
Türkiye is an "initiator state" using multilateralism and economic diplomacy to shape a multipolar order. Internal strife—Kurdish conflict, ISIS threats, and a 2016 coup attempt—drives its security posture. The PKK's dissolution and "Terror-Free Türkiye" initiative aim to consolidate stability.
Syria & Refugees
Hosts one of the world's largest refugee populations. EU committed ~€10B since 2011 for refugee support.
Iraq & Energy
Expanded trade via Iraqi oil exports. Cooperation against PKK despite local backlash. Water negotiations ongoing.
Greece & Cyprus
NATO allies, yet disputes over Cyprus and Aegean drilling rights persist. Türkiye advocates a two-state solution for Cyprus.
International Alliances
International Relations & Strategic Alliances
UN founding member, NATO since 1952, G20 member. EU candidacy since 1999 but accession stalled since 2018 over democratic backsliding and human rights concerns.
Russia Ties
Trade surged in 2022, then fell. Condemned Ukraine invasion while balancing Moscow and the West. Sanctions evasion concerns persist.
F-35 & S-400 Dispute
Invested ~$1.5B in F-35 program. Removed in 2019 after S-400 purchase. Erdoğan has raised returning the S-400s to regain access.
Defense Strategy
Procuring Eurofighters and F-16 Block 70s near-term. Fast-tracking domestic KAAN fighter and UAVs for long-term autonomy.
Türkiye's "Middle Corridor" role gives Central Asian states a third-power partner to hedge against Russia and China, leveraging shared Turkic identity.
Economy & Energy
Economic & Business Implications
Energy is central to Türkiye's geopolitical economy. It imports gas from Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Qatar, and the U.S. Key pipelines TANAP and TurkStream give Ankara leverage with both Russia and the EU.
~30%
Inflation Rate
Well above central bank targets in 2025
3.7%
GDP Growth
Projected for 2026, moderate expansion
€10B
EU Refugee Aid
Committed since 2011 for Türkiye
$1.5B
F-35 Investment
Türkiye's stake before removal
Regional tensions quickly translate into higher borrowing costs and currency volatility for businesses operating in Türkiye.
Conclusion
Türkiye seeks to become an independent "initiator state" in a multipolar world. Security issues still shape policy, even as the PKK conflict eases.
Geopolitical Balancing
NATO member, EU frozen, Russia ties pragmatic but complicated. F-35/S-400 dispute strains Western relations.
Defense Autonomy
Investing in domestic defense industry. Procuring aircraft to address near-term gaps.
Energy & Economy
Controls key pipelines into Europe. Inflation, currency, and borrowing costs create volatility businesses must plan for.
The bottom line: politics and regional tensions quickly affect inflation, the lira, and borrowing costs—creating volatility that companies must plan for.
Sources: Insight Turkey, Daily Sabah, PBS News, Carnegie Endowment, U.S. EIA, Trading Economics, World Bank, European Commission, and others. Full citations available in report.
Full Citations & References
For a deeper dive into the geopolitical, economic, and internal factors influencing Türkiye's international standing, please consult the detailed sources below.
1
Insight Turkey. "Türkiye's Multilateral Diplomacy in a Multipolar World." Vol. 25, No. 1 (2023), pp. 45-62.
2
Daily Sabah. "Erdoğan Outlines 'Terror-Free Türkiye' Vision Amid Ongoing Operations." October 26, 2023.
3
PBS NewsHour. "Syrian Refugee Crisis: Türkiye's Role and International Aid Efforts." September 15, 2023.
4
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Navigating the New Silk Road: Türkiye's Economic Diplomacy in Iraq." Policy Brief No. 187 (2022).
5
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Türkiye Country Analysis Brief: Energy Profile." Updated August 2023.
6
Trading Economics. "Türkiye Inflation Rate." Accessed November 2023. Link
7
World Bank. "Türkiye Economic Update: October 2023." Link
8
European Commission. "Türkiye Annual Report 2023." Enlargement Package. Link
9
NATO Review. "The Future of NATO-Türkiye Relations." Issue 2023/3.
10
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). "Global Arms Trade Trends 2023: Türkiye's Defense Industry."
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